It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
