Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
